When Is a Trend, Not a Trend (2nd attempt)

docendo discimus

Most of us think we can spot a trend in school data when we see one but increasingly I’m not so sure. The problem is not that trends don’t exist; some schools will genuinely be improving and others declining but, at the moment, most people in education tend to accept that schools have blips in their data for reasons that are almost completely random but that looking at data over several years gets past this problem. Reaction to the Cramlington Learning Village Ofsted report (Outstanding to Special Measures) is a good example.

The suggestion here is that if the data gets worse for four years in a row then that is…

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